Gold and Silver Expect Continued Volatility

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The morning of January 15 saw a slight retreat in the spot gold prices in the Asian market, currently reflecting trading around $2675 per ounce. On the preceding day, prices had managed a minor rebound, closing at $2677.22 per ounce. This increase was buoyed by recent U.S. inflation data that fell slightly short of expectations, igniting a faint glimmer of hope among investors that the Federal Reserve might continue to lower interest rates into 2025. The dollar's response was a downward trend, which is notable given its critical role in global trade dynamics.

Concerns regarding uncertainty in U.S. policy have also provided support to gold prices. The persistent fear of potential economic ramifications and geopolitical tension has led investors to consider gold a safe haven. Yet, rising U.S. Treasury yields have caused some hesitation among gold bulls, creating a complex landscape for commodity trading.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December revealed an increase lower than anticipated, primarily due to rising commodity costs being offset by stable service prices. This finding indicates that inflation continues on a downward trajectory; however, it follows months of stagnant progress in reducing inflationary pressures. The report from the Department of Labor, released on Tuesday, points to a slowdown in producer price growth but does not alter the Federal Reserve’s stance on refraining from further interest rate cuts until later in the year, given the resilience of the labor market. Additionally, the incoming U.S. administration may impose tariffs on imported goods, posing further inflationary risks that complicate the narrative.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the final demand Producer Price Index rose by 0.2% last month, a decline from the 0.4% increase in November, which remains unadjusted. Economists surveyed by Reuters had projected a 0.3% rise in PPI. Year-over-year, the December PPI increased by 3.3%, marking the highest growth rate since February 2023, juxtaposed with expectations of a 3.4% increment; it stood at 3.0% for November. This remarkable year-on-year leap reflects last year's lower prices, particularly for energy products. Following a 1.1% rise in 2023, inflation rates are now projected to ascend by 3.3% in 2024.

On January 15, technical analysis of gold showed the market opened near $2663, experiencing slight upward traction during the Asian session before consolidating within a narrow range during European trading hours. The American session then witnessed a dip, where prices hit a new intraday low around $2660 before reversing course to close near the day's high at $2678, resulting in a small bullish candlestick formation on the daily chart. The Bollinger Band appears relatively flat with price oscillating near the upper band, while moving averages MA5 and MA10 are showing signs of divergence upwards, indicating a potential bullish reversal in the medium term.

However, despite this rebound, the MACD shows increasing momentum, while the KDJ indicator demonstrates a bearish cross, suggesting that while there may be room for a surge, caution remains prudent. As we approach today’s trading, market sentiments highlight potential resistance, suggesting a strategy leaning toward short positions at higher price levels. Traders are advised to watch closely for the market dynamics that may signal further volatility.

For trading strategies on January 15: Sell positions can be taken near the $2678-$2680 range, with a stop-loss set at $6.5 and target profits aimed between $2665 to $2638 range. Additionally, any tests near $2710-$2712 should also be considered for a short position with similar stop-loss parameters and target profits set at $2700 and $2686. Conversely, should prices drop to the $2630-$2632 vicinity, it may present an opportunity for a buy position, with a stop-loss of $6.5 and expected upward targets between $2644 and $2660.

Turning to silver, the market opened around $29.6, showing minor increases during Asian and European trading before the U.S. session, where it climbed further to hit a daily high near $30 before a slight retracement at the close—which illustrated further bullish tendencies. Daily chart observations indicate a steady movement within the Bollinger Bands, with moving averages also showing stabilization efforts. This reflects that while upward pressures remain, there is a consistent call for market caution due to potential high-pressure scenarios.

For silver trading advisories on January 15: A short position can be taken at the $30-$30.18 area with a $30.37 stop-loss, targeting declines towards levels between $29.53 to $28.48. Any tests around $30.53 to $30.67 should also constitute short opportunities, with stop-loss points of $30.83. Conversely, for buy opportunities, levels around $28.45 to $28.56 could also yield potential with targeted gains set towards $29 up to $29.57.

Lastly, regarding crude oil, trading commenced near $78.8 on January 14, initially showcasing a downward trend in the Asian session before rebounding in the European hours, hitting an intraday high at the $79 mark and subsequently retreating to set fresh lows at approximately $77.4 by close. The appearance of a long lower shadow candlestick suggests potential volatility ahead within the oil sector. The technical analysis indicates that the Bollinger Bands are opened upwards but price remains choppy near the upper levels.

Oil trading strategies can consist of purchasing near $77.0 to $77.2 with a stop-loss of $76 and targeting resurgences at $78 to $80. Alternatively, any breaks near the $75.8 to $76 can also warrant buy orders with expectations to rise back towards $77 to $78.8. Also, candidates for sell positions can emerge near $80 to $80.3, with stop-loss set at $81.2, targeting retracement back down to $79-$77.8.

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